HazWx Exclusive Blizzard Index

Significant Snow for the Northeast!

Multiple models are coming into agreement for a rather significant snowstorm to hit portions of the northeast from Tuesday into Thursday! Heavy snow and strong winds will cause poor conditions across much of the northeast through the period. Our custom, experimental Blizzard Index also shows Blizzard Conditions possible!

Current Winter Storm Watch

Current Winter Storm Watch

Hi Res NAM snowfall through Wed Evening

Hi Res NAM snowfall through Wed Evening

NAM (left) vs GFS (right) 84 Hour Snowfall

NAM (left) vs GFS (right) 84 Hour Snowfall

HazWx Exclusive Blizzard Index

HazWx Exclusive Blizzard Index

 

Current Watches/Warnings

Light Snow for the Southern Plains

After a day in the 70s and 80s across Oklahoma, light snow and rain is forecast for portions of the southern plains, from Oklahoma into portions of Kansas and Colorado.

Current Watches/Warnings

Current Watches/Warnings (Pink = Winter Storm Warning / Purple = Winter Weather Advisory)

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6AM Saturday Radar Forecast

Snow forecast through 11AM Saturday

Snow forecast through 11AM Saturday
18z NAM 4km - 36 hour NAM Snow

Winter Storm Underway

A powerful winter storm is underway now across the central US. This storm will continue through the overnight hours as it moves east. Heavy snow, sleet, ice and bitter cold temperatures are expected with this system. On the warm side of the system, severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Watch/Warning Summary

Watch/Warning Summary

SPC Day 1 Outlook

SPC Day 1 Outlook

US Radar Image

US Radar Image

Heavy ice accumulation is expected across portions of the Ohio River Valley area, with the heaviest snow accumulations expected across portions of southern Kentucky and Tennessee.

18z NAM 4km - 36 Hour Ice Accumulation Forecast

18z NAM 4km – 36 Hour Ice Accumulation Forecast

Heavy snow accumulation is expected across portions of the Ohio River Valley area, with the heaviest snow accumulations expected across portions of Kentucky and Virginia/West Virginia.

18z NAM 4km - 36 hour NAM Snow

18z NAM 4km – 36 hour NAM Snow

Earlier today, widespread thundersleet was experienced across much of Oklahoma!

Radar/Lightning from early this AM

Radar/Lightning from early this AM

Forecast Wind Chills

Winter Storm Aims at Central US

A powerful low pressure system sitting off the west coast is forecast to move out into the central US and bring havoc to large portions of the central and eastern US. Significant amounts of ice and snow accumulations are forecast over a wide area. Ice storm warnings and winter storm warnings have already been issued for a large area! Further north, bitter cold wind chills are forecast across the northern half of the US!

Watch/Warning Summary

Watch/Warning Summary

Crippling ice accumulation amounts are forecast for portions of AR/TN/KY.. These areas have been placed into an ICE STORM WARNING already.

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There are very large swings in the snow output from models.. Look here at the NAM output from the latest run (left – 00z) and the right (18z).

0z NAM (left) 18z NAM (right) Snowfall Forecast

0z NAM (left) 18z NAM (right) Snowfall Forecast

Here is the latest Hi Res NAM forecast output.. This is different than the low res NAM above!

0z 4km NAM Hi Res Snow Forecast

0z 4km NAM Hi Res Snow Forecast

Lastly, bitter cold temperatures will cause wind chills to dip into dangerously cold values. Some areas in the far northern plains are forecast to see wind chills near or below -50!

Forecast Wind Chills

Forecast Wind Chills

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Storms Pausing Daytona 500

Storms have recently formed near the Daytona 500 near Daytona Beach, Florida. The race is currently under a red flag, meaning the race is paused.

Storm over Daytona

Storm over Daytona

RADAR1

The models show that storms/lightning will continue to be a threat through the afternoon!
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Radar Reflectivity/Precip Type Forecast

Thursday’s Powerful Storm

Thursday will bring a massive blizzard to portions of the upper Midwest, flooding to portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley and even severe weather including the potential for tornadoes across Indiana/Ohio and further south into Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi and Alabama. We are about to break down every threat right here! To access maps like the ones below for yourself and look specifically at your area, click here!

 

Watch/Warning Overview

Watch/Warning Overview

Blizzard

As a low pressure system rapidly deepens across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, heavy snow will begin to fall to the northwest of the low. In addition to this heavy snow, very strong winds will create total whiteout conditions. Blizzard WARNINGS and Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect. The image above shows Blizzard Warnings in Red, with Winter Storm Warnings in Pink. Our Blizzard Conditions index hints at the area across Iowa as the hotspot for potential Blizzard Conditions.

Blizzard Conditions Index/3 Hour Snow

Blizzard Conditions Index/3 Hour Snow

Total Forecast Snow

Total Forecast Snow

 

Severe Weather

A very moist and moderately unstable airmass, ahead of a powerful cold front, will set the stage for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area for severe weather. Thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front and pose the risk for severe weather including damaging winds, large hail and possibly even some tornadoes. Below are some various images detailing the threat, including the SPC outlook as well as some instability and wind shear forecasts.

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 2 Outlook

 

500mb Vorticity/Surface Dewpoint

500mb Vorticity/Surface Dewpoint

CAPE/Supercell Composite

CAPE/Supercell Composite

 

Radar Reflectivity/Precip Type Forecast

Radar Reflectivity/Precip Type Forecast

 

Flooding

As the low pressure moves across the Great Lakes, numerous thunderstorms will develop and move across the same areas. This, in addition to snow that will be melted has led to Flood Watches being issued across portions of Illinois and Indiana.. Here is the total precipitation forecast by the Hi Res NAM.

60 Hour Precip Totals

60 Hour Precip Totals

Wind

As the low pressure system rapidly deepens, very strong winds will be felt across a very large area.. Here is a graphic detailing the surface wind gusts forecast.

Wind Gusts

Wind Gusts

Remember…

You can access maps like these and look more specifically at your area by clicking here!

Forecast Radar

Thursday Severe Weather: Dixie Alley

A powerful storm system will bring an appreciable threat for severe weather on Thursday to portions of “Dixie Alley”. Areas from Indiana and Ohio, southward to the Gulf of Mexico may see the risk for severe thunderstorms including damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few isolated tornadoes. Below are some images detailing the threats. You can use our advanced forecast system to look for yourself here!

SPC Day 3 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook

Forecast Radar

Forecast Radar

Instability (left) - Supercell Composite Parameter (right)

Instability (left) – Supercell Composite Parameter (right)

 

Vorticity (left) - Wind Shear (right)

Vorticity (left) – Wind Shear (right)

Blizzard Conditions Index Thursday Afternoon

Blizzard Watch Issued for Iowa

A relentless winter continues for portions of the upper Midwest as a Blizzard Watch has been issued for portions of Iowa and Minnesota for Thursday (2/20) afternoon. A winter storm watch has been issued for adjacent portions of central and southwest Wisconsin. Below are various images from the models utilizing our experimental Blizzard Conditions Index as well as the total expected snowfall.

Blizzard Watch

Blizzard Watch

* TIMING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING
  AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOW FALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
  INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. VERY STRONG
  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  AND MAY CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
* STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS
  EXPECTED. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR.
* WINDS/VISIBILITY...THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY WITH THIS
  SYSTEM AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. THE WIND WILL
  QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
  GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* IMPACTS...IN ADDITION TO THE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL...A BAND OF WET
  AND HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WET SNOW MAY BE HEAVY
  ENOUGH TO CAUSE TREE DAMAGE ONCE THE WIND INCREASES AND COULD
  LEAD TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

Blizzard Conditions Index Thursday Afternoon

Blizzard Conditions Index Thursday Afternoon

Blizzard Conditions Index Thursday Evening

Blizzard Conditions Index Thursday Evening

Total model snow accumulation.

Total model snow accumulation.

 

Eastern US Dealing with Crippling Storm

Heavy snow, crippling ice accumulations and even severe thunderstorms have hit the eastern US hard in the last 12 to 24 hours and will continue to do so.

First off, here is a look at the current watch/warning summary

Watch/Warning Summary

Watch/Warning Summary

Severe Thunderstorms are impacting portions of Florida right now. Seen here is the latest radar at the time of this post as well as storm reports, showing some wind and hail reports.

Radar/Wind & Hail Reports

Radar/Wind & Hail Reports

 

Here is an image from a tornado warning earlier in Florida. It has since expired.
picIn addition to this, heavy snow and freezing rain has crippled the east coast. Radar/Winter Weather reports as well as travel conditions are shown below.

Travel Conditions

Travel Conditions

Radar/Winter Weather Reports

Radar/Winter Weather Reports

Heavy snow and freezing rain will continue for the short term across the eastern US.. Here is the 48 hour snow and ice accumulation forecasts. Some very high numbers!

48 Hr Ice Accumulation Forecast

48 Hr Ice Accumulation Forecast

48 Hr Snowfall Forecast

48 Hr Snowfall Forecast

 

Stay tuned to the latest information from your local media sources! You can also forecast and analyze the weather for yourself here!

 

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Significant Ice/Snow Storm for Georgia and the Carolinas

A significant winter storm is forecast to bring significant amounts of snow and freezing rain to portions of the southern and eastern United States tomorrow into Wednesday.

Winter Storm Warnings/Watches as well as Ice Storm Warnings have already been posted across some of the area. See the image below.

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Significant amounts of ice accumulation is expected. There is high confidence that ice accumulations exceeding 1/4″ could occur in some locations. This could lead to widespread potentially long lasting power outages in some locations. See the two images below for ice accumulation.

.10" Probability

.10″ Ice Probability

 

.25" Ice Probability

.25″ Ice Probability

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In addition, heavy snow is forecast to the northwest of the ice storm, which is where Winter Storm Watches/Warnings have been posted already for Tuesday into Wednesday

 

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Snow Accumulation Forecast