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Winter Storm Ongoing

A winter storm is already ongoing across the far southern plains and is expected to continue impacting portions of the southern plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes in the next few days. A number of advisories and warnings are already posted, with more expected in the coming hours.

One main story is the potential for significant ice accumulations with this storm. The latest models are trending higher with potential ice amounts. Temperatures through the atmosphere will be critical to the exact outcome of this event, so changes are certainly possible.

Here is an image from the NAM4, a high resolution model that goes out to 60 hours and runs 4 times per day across the United States.

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This image is from the latest NAM12.. A lower resolution model that also runs 4 times per day across the US. It is not able to resolve finer details, but in general shows a swath of heavy ice accumulation in the same corridor.

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Outside of this band of potential icing, there is the potential for snowfall accumulation… While snowfall amounts do not look to be significant, 3-5 inches will be possible over a rather large area of the central US. snow1

 

For a broader picture, you can see the system in a whole, delivering the area of snowfall, with areas of rain across the Ohio Valley.

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NWS Snowfall Forecast

Accumulating Snow Coming for North Carolina/Virginia

The higher elevations of North Carolina and Virginia are looking at their first round of winter precip in a long while. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for the areas in pink with Winter Weather Advisories in the areas outlined in purple. Snowfall will be highly dependent on the elevation, since lower elevations still have warm ground temperatures. All forecast model images are from HazWx Interactive Weather Mapping Site

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM FRIDAY
TO 8 PM SATURDAY.
* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES ARE
  EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
  PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FEET. ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET SHOULD RECEIVE
  BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES.
* TIMING...RAIN WILL INITIALLY CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING OVER
  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING DOWN INTO
  VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
  CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE
  DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ON ROADS ACROSS
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE.
  DOWNED TREES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SNOW ACCUMULATING ON
  FOLIAGE STILL LEFT ON MANY TREES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED.
Watch/Warning Summary as of 330PM 10/30/14

Watch/Warning Summary as of 330PM 10/30/14

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

3 Hour Precip Fri Eve

3 Hour Precip Fri Eve

Expected Snow Accumulation

Expected Snow Accumulation

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Near Ground Temperatures Saturday Afternoon

Forecast Radar - 6PM Monday

Late Season Severe Weather Outbreak – Mississippi/Tennessee River Valleys

A late season, but significant severe weather outbreak is becoming increasingly likely tomorrow across portions of the Mississippi/Tennessee River Valleys. Starting this evening, a powerful squall line will develop in Western Oklahoma and begin to move east overnight. As it does, increasing moisture and instability will develop ahead of the line, allowing for the severe weather threat to grow overnight. Very impressive wind speeds above the ground will allow for damaging wind gusts with this line. In addition, strong low level shear also raises the possibility of tornadoes, some of which could be strong, especially tomorrow afternoon across the areas outlined below.

As we often do in significant severe weather events, we have our high resolution model ready to go. This model will be floating over the areas of greatest concern and will be forecasting the potential of severe weather in high detail. You can click on the images below to view the raw data for yourselves on our powerful Google Maps interface. All of the maps below and additional weather maps are available at HazWx – Our interactive weather maps engine!

Upper Level Winds + SPC Day 2 Outlook

Upper Level Winds + SPC Day 2 Outlook

Forecast Radar - 6PM Monday

Forecast Radar – 6PM Monday

0-3 km Energy Helicity Index

0-3 km Energy Helicity Index

Forecast Sounding for NW Mississippi

Forecast Sounding for Northern Mississippi – 5PM

192 hour rainfall forecast from the 10/8 00z GFS (Global Forecast System)

Heavy Rainfall Eyeing the Nation’s Midsection

A stalled frontal boundary and abundant moisture, aided by a remnant tropical system, will set the stage for more heavy rainfall across the central US into this weekend. Next week, another large piece of energy is forecast to dive into the central plains then eject northeastward, bringing widespread rainfall to much of the central and eastern US.

Here is a variety of maps depicting important features for the next week. Each image contains a description in the caption. These images all came from our powerful weather forecast maps engine, which allows you to overlay weather data onto Google Maps, allowing you to zoom into high detail and look at data around the country! You can view more about our maps here!

A stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms

A stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms

84 rainfall forecast from the 10/8 12z NAM (North American Model)

84 rainfall forecast from the 10/8 12z NAM (North American Model)

Trough digging into the central US

Trough digging into the central US

The piece of energy responsible for the rainfall next week

The piece of energy responsible for the rainfall next week

Precipitable water map shows moisture ahead of the incoming piece of energy

Precipitable water map shows moisture ahead of the incoming piece of energy

192 hour rainfall forecast from the 10/8 00z GFS (Global Forecast System)

192 hour rainfall forecast from the 10/8 00z GFS (Global Forecast System)

 

 

 

finalytyphoon

If Super Typhoon Vongfong were to Impact Chicago…

We ran the HazWRF3, our own high resolution, movable, scale-able forecast model, over the strongest cyclone of 2014 – Super Typoon Vongfong… Vongfong is in the Philippine Sea, and is expected to move toward Japan later this week… When these storms are out in the ocean, they are often hard to size up… Well, for illustration purposes, we plotted our model forecast of the storm, centered over Chicago, to give an idea of just how large of an area it would cover!  Imagine a storm of this caliber, with peak wind speeds near 175 mph, impacting such an area!

Right now, Vongfong is now equivalent to a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 288 kph (180 mph) and gusts approaching 354 kph (220 mph).

Again, the actual Typhoon is expected to impact the Japan area and is not impacting Chicago. The image is for illustration purposes.

This image was made to scale-

finalytyphoon

Vongfong Track

Vongfong Track

For more information about our high resolution WRF model, click here.

 

Advanced alerting console

Something Big is Coming

Brought to life nearly 8 months ago, Hazard Notifications set out to redefine weather as it relates to business. In 2012 alone, the global economic loss from weather-related events was nearly $150 billion. Behind closed doors, we have been working feverishly to develop groundbreaking software to become the leader in asset protection and decision support. Our new technology is nearing release and promises to revolutionize many aspects of weather business, filling gaps and improving existing technology that competitors have failed to acknowledge. A wide range of industries will be able to immediately reap the benefits from advanced technology that provides alerts well in advance for potential impacts.

Users will be able to set a custom radius to be notified of various hazards including strong thunderstorms and lightning. Users will have access to street level lightning data, radar, weather alerts and much more. Instant notifications via email and mobile devices will be available for a wide range of alerts, including proprietary alerts developed by Hazard Notifications meteorologists.

Stay tuned over the next few weeks as we continue to announce features and show off screenshots of our advanced alert console.

 

Advanced alerting console

Advanced alerting console

 

alert

Storm cell alerts

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast Radar & SPC Outlook

June 16th Severe Weather Threat

The risk for potentially significant severe weather exists across portions of the upper Midwest Monday, June 16th. Ample  amounts of shear and instability could combine to set the stage for severe thunderstorms along a boundary draped east to west across Iowa and Minnesota. Questions remain as to the exact evolution of morning thunderstorms which will have an impact on where and if storms form in the afternoon. Below are some maps from our forecast model website

Click the images below to explore the maps for yourself!

Upper level jet moving into the area.

Upper level jet moving into the area.

Supercell Composite Parameter

Supercell Composite Parameter

Morning storms will impact where the boundary sets up

Morning storms will impact where the boundary sets up

Position of the warm front/boundary

Position of the warm front/boundary

Overall Most Likely Severe Weather Area

Forecast Radar & SPC Outlook

Forecast Radar & SPC Outlook

Forecast Radar & SPC Risk %

Mother’s Day Severe Weather Outbreak

A potentially significant severe weather outbreak is possible tomorrow, Sunday, Mother’s Day across a large portion of the central United States. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a “Moderate Risk” of severe weather using the phrase “SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH MANY TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT”

Here is the SPC’s risk area along with the Energy Helicity Index – which shows areas of high instability and wind shear overlapping.

Moderate Risk - Sunday - Mother's Day

Moderate Risk – Sunday – Mother’s Day

Here is a map showing the forecast radar as well as the SPC’s risk percentages.

Forecast Radar & SPC Risk %

Forecast Radar & SPC Risk %

Please monitor your local media and weather sources! There are also a large amount of severe weather tools available at hazwx,com/maps

storms

Active Severe Weather Pattern Coming!

A very active severe weather pattern is setting up across the central and southern US over the next few days. Multiple rounds of severe weather are likely, some of which could be quite significant. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, tornadoes (some could be strong) and damaging winds.

SPC Day 2-8 Outlooks

SPC Day 2-8 Outlooks

Day 2 (Saturday April 26th)

There is a risk of severe storms along a dryline in western Oklahoma through portions of KS and TX. These storms may be prevented from developing through much of the day due to a strong “cap” in place. When storms in the evening and overnight hours, they will have the potential to be severe with tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.

storms

Day 3 (Sunday April 27th)

A “moderate” risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday. It is important to not always focus on these lines however! Severe weather is possible across a very large area from Nebraska through Texas (seen in the middle image at the top). The greatest risk appears to be across central and southern Kansas, southward into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeastern TX.

day3

Day 4 (Monday April 28th)

Severe weather is likely, shifting further east/south on Monday as the powerful storm system continues to move east. Severe weather is possible from portions of the southern great lakes, southward through the Gulf of Mexico. The image below shows the “Energy Helicity Index” or combination of CAPE/Low level shear.

day4

Day 5 (Tuesday April 29th)

Tuesday also appears to have the potential for significant severe weather, though details and timing/location are still unclear. Each day will have impacts on the severe weather the next day, so it is important to monitor the latest conditions! Here is an image showing the available instability forecast for Tuesday evening. The main threat appears to be across Mississippi and Alabama where the most instability and wind shear will combine.

day6

 

 

Another Powerful Storm

Another powerful storm system will move across the upper Midwest, through the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Along with it will come heavy snow, freezing rain, potential white out conditions and even the threat for severe thunderstorms! Let’s take a look at all the threats involved!

Heavy Snow

NWS Warning Map

NWS Warning Map

 

NAM vs GFS Snowfall

NAM vs GFS Snowfall

The heavy snow and strong winds will lead to possible Blizzard Conditions for much of the event!

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Experimental Blizzard Index

Sleet/Freezing Rain

There will be the potential for some sleet and freezing rain to accumulate near the center of the track of the system. This could lead to some power outage issues with such strong winds in the forecast.

mixed

3 Hour Precip and Precip Type Wed Afternoon

ice

Total Ice Accumulation

Severe Weather

To the south of the storm’s track, severe thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. The SPC has outlined a marginal risk for severe weather both days.

SPC Day 1 Hail Risk/Radar & Instability Forecast

SPC Day 1 Hail Risk/Radar & Instability Forecast

SPC Day 2 Risk/Reflectivity

SPC Day 2 Risk/Reflectivity

Cold Temperatures

Bitter cold temperatures will be seen along the backside of the storm system. Wind chills could dip to dangerously low values!

bitter