5 hour forecast vs radar.. DIA supercell 5/21/14. Model was correct to within miles!

An Evaluation of our WRF

We are continuously developing products to meet the needs of various industries. In doing this, we constantly are testing products to see how they handle different situations. One of the products we run is the “HazWRF3″ which is an ARW core 3km high resolution forecast model. This uses a combination of micro-physics schemes that we choose to fit each region or desired phenomena to model.

Since we build models such as these for our clients, we have decided to put together a few images showing the performance of the model for various events. There is a gallery below of some cases, that will update as more events are captured.

To speak to us about a custom modeling solution for yourself, please contact us.

 

10/1/14 KS/MO Severe Weather Event

The night before severe weather hit the Midwest, including a plethora of severe weather watches and warnings, our model had a grasp on the situation and provided ample lead time before the event.

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7/21/14 Parkersburg, IA Tornado

Even 24 hours out, our WRF model predicted the supercell thunderstorm nearly perfectly. Actual radar is the top image with the 4 runs of the model leading up to the event, shown below,

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5/26/14 Watford, ND Supercell

We ran the HazWRF, using a run time at 3z Monday (Sunday evening at 10pm). The **19 hour forecast** (Valid 22 UTC Monday) showed a powerful supercell passing a mere few miles north of where the actual tornado occured. The actual tornado passed through this area between 00 and 01 UTC (0046 UTC radar shown). This is an example of INCREDIBLE performance from the model and attests to the hard work and incredible talent of the Hazard Notifications LLC team!

 

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5/26/14 West TX Supercells

Ran at 17 UTC, the 5 hour WRF forecast nearly perfectly forecasted the storms that produced severe weather.

5 hour WRF forecast vs actual radar. 5/26/14.

5 hour WRF forecast vs actual radar. 5/26/14.

 

5/25/14 West TX Supercells

At 15 hour forecast, the WRF did very well this day, capturing one supercell and hinting at the other ongoing supercell further south across Mexico.

15 hour forecast (right) vs actual (left).

15 hour forecast (right) vs actual (left).

 

5/21/14 Denver Supercell

The model at 5 hours perfect predicted the supercell that occurred later that afternoon. The model resolved the rotation path of the supercell 5 hours in advance, down to nearly perfect time and within a few miles!

5 hour forecast vs radar.. DIA supercell 5/21/14. Model was correct to within miles!

5 hour forecast vs radar.. DIA supercell 5/21/14. Model was correct to within miles!

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HazWx Media Package – What Does it Mean?

At various points on our website, you will see references to a “Media Package“. Due to a number of questions about this feature set, we wanted to take a moment to explain exactly what key features it includes, beyond those associate with all Interactive Maps solutions.

There are a great number of clients who regularly broadcast our information to their followers either by social media or television broadcast. Especially in the area of social media, followers look for trusted logos to know their favorite source of information approves of the data shown! Meteorological information can be perceived a number of ways, but your followers trust you to interpret it correctly and inform them of the proper course of action.

Our media package allows you to take HazWx data and put your respective branding on the images. This first off gives your own unique look to the image and second, lets your followers know that this information was reviewed by you and you deem it as accurate. Followers will respond positively to this and engage in posts and rebroadcast the information themselves.

Members who have purchased a Media Package will have the added option to “Change Logo Image” inside the user control panel. From here, you can simply insert the URL to your image and it will automatically brand the maps!

The media account is good for anyone who wants to share maps regularly! Even if you are just a personal user, but want to put your own unique twist onto the maps, you can! You can change your logo as often as you want, make as many changes, there are no restrictions!

Click Here to Sign Up!

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android

HazWx Android App Released!

The 00z NAM has just released prior to a big weather day and you’re at dinner with the family. You cannot access your precious Hi-Res weather models because you’re nowhere near a computer. You start to sweat and stutter as your dinner companion orders dessert – they never order dessert!

You check your phone over and over hoping someone will text, tweet, anything! Nope, they’re not because they’re pouring over the insane variables displayed on their screens at home.

It doesn’t have to be this way…

Now enjoy the power of HazWx.com advanced weather models right in your pocket in a beautifully designed and intuitive application! The HazWx application, you guessed it, is compliments of your HazWx online subscription and brings the full model offering right to your fingertips.

-Pinch to zoom Weather Data

-Forecast models including HRRR,RAP,NAM4,NAM12,GFS and SPC WRF

-Powerful Google Maps interface

-Side by Side model comparison

-Google Traffic Data

-Spotter Network Data

-Radar and Satellite Overlays

-HazWx Custom Indicies

-HazWx’s Exclusive TargetTracker

Creating the only companion app of it’s kind, HazWx has again broken the mold and is changing the way you receive your essential weather information. Visit http://HazWx.com for full product offering, pricing and sign up information.

 

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If you are an iOS user, we understand you must feel frustrated and left out. When building our application, we ran into serious limitations with iOS. At this time, iOS is unable to support our high resolution graphics and detailed color tables. In order to change these, we would have to significantly degrade the user experience not only on the mobile device, but the web as well. We are still actively researching potential for an iOS app, however! In the mean time, did you know our website works great in Safari and other iOS browsers on your mobile devices? Whether on an iPad, iPhone or your PC, you can easily view our website and still utilize all features listed above! Wifi, 3G/4G, you can still view all the data in your mobile browser!

Thanks for your overwhelming support thus far, we look forward to continuing to bring you new and exciting products!

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Forecast Soundings Now Available!

Forecast soundings are a vital tool to forecasters as they tell a great deal of information about the atmosphere, to forecasters. After months of hard work, we have just released soundings for the majority of our models at HazWx. Our soundings offer a great amount of detail, especially, with sounding information containing the shear and instability values along with other important information such as the storm speed and direction.

Additionally, our soundings offer color coded hodographs so you can easily discern the shear and winds at each level!

Soundings like the one below are generated with a simple right click on the area of interest, once you have selected your forecast model of choice. At this time, soundings are enabled for all models except the HRRR and the 4KM NAM. These models are incredibly high resolution and we want to be very sure the data will be accurate and available in a timely manner before we push these live!

Obviously, these are still in the early stages, so please let us know and be understanding if you have issues. We will be monitoring the system and watching the progress! Also, you may need to clear your browser cache in order to see these

 

Try it Now!

 

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HazWx Feature Upgrade 1

What good is looking at awesome weather data if you can’t share it easily with your friends and other weather geeks!? Well now, with HazWx, you can! We have added Facebook, Twitter and Google sharing, as simple as a few clicks! Just click share and your post will automatically show the model, product and when its valid! This is just one of the new feature upgrades we JUST pushed LIVE!

 

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Also added:

1) Enhanced radar/satellite controls

2) Split screen can now be controlled from either side

3) 3 letter day of week added to valid times 4) Google Traffic layer added.

4) “Save Preferences” option now remembers your time display preferences, in addition to your last map location and map terrain/satellite preferences.

 

We continue to work on new and exciting products and another, even bigger feature release is coming in the very near future!!

Welcome to HazWx.com

Welcome! HazWx.com is here, your new home for the most advanced forecast weather data out there. This will be home to the interactive weather maps engine that we have worked to develop for quite some time! High resolution weather forecast graphics, integrated with the powerful Google Maps engine. In addition, we have spent countless hours developing our own custom indices and parameters, such as our blizzard index, with even more to come! Finally, what weather package is complete without the ability to analyze the current situation? This is why we have integrated satellite and radar data, as well as information from the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) to provide you the full kit in forecasting and analyzing the weather! That is just a start to the analysis data that is coming in the next few weeks!

Our prices start at less than $10 a month. This will include full access to all models, including our custom indices, as well as our full featured mobile app that is coming soon! For our media/social media users, we have options for custom white label branding, where your logo appears on our graphics!

We are already grateful for your continued support as we went through this development process. We hope you find our services incredibly useful and intuitive. Please join us as we innovate and change the way weather data is received in our industry. If you have any questions, please use our contact forms and reach out to us. We also have an FAQ page located in the “preferences” section of the maps.

 

Thank you once again. I speak for everyone at Hazard Notifications when I say we are excited to unveil this project and continue on other new and exciting innovations.

 

Sincerely,

Brandon Sullivan

Managing Partner

Hazard Notifications, LLC

 

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rtma

Real Time Mesoscale Analysis | Interactive Maps

By now, you have likely heard the word of our forecast modeling system launching February 1st.. At least we hope you have!

Every great forecast first requires an understanding of the current conditions. That is why we are proud to announce we will be publishing data from the NOAA/NCEP RTMA (Real Time Mesoscale Analysis) system! This will allow for a detailed look at the current near surface conditions. This data will update hourly and will be available to all subscribers!

If you haven’t signed up to be notified when this and other unique products launch very soon, put in your email below!

Below is an image preview showing the incredible detail provided by this analysis!

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Hazard Notifications on WeatherBrains Tonight!

If you are into weather, the online web series “WeatherBrains” is a must for you to see! WeatherBrains is the weekly netcast that’s all about weather, delivered on a variety of audio and video platforms. This is the show that unites weather geeks worldwide! Tonight, Brandon Sullivan, the CEO of Hazard Notifications will be on WeatherBrains, discussing all the amazing technology coming soon. If you have wanted a preview into the future of Hazard Notifications, here is your chance to check it out!

Here is their website below, with links to archived shows and information.. Check it out and check in tonight to view the show!

Brandon will be discussing the HazWx modeling site, with live previews of the interface, talking about mobile development, social media and other interesting topics!

 

 You can watch the show here!

 

 

blzww

HazWx Blizzard Index Predicts Blizzard

As early as yesterday morning, our Blizzard Conditions Index highlighted the potential for Blizzard conditions across Illinois and Indiana. Our custom algorithm takes in a variety of factors to pinpoint where Blizzard conditions may strike. This afternoon, Blizzard Warnings were issued for portions of the area highlighted by our index!

 

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This index, along with other custom indices we have under development, can offer extended warning time in many weather situations!

To be notified when this and many other custom indices go public, enter your email below!

 

windchillSEI

Hazard Notifications Introduces *Experimental* Skin Exposure Index

Life threatening cold is impacting much of the Midwest today and tomorrow! Bitter cold wind chills possibly dipping to -60F are possible. In these conditions, frostbite can occur in a matter of minutes!

This event has inspired Hazard Notifications to create a unique *Experimental* Skin Exposure Index, or SEI algorithm, that the monitors the conditions necessary to cause frostbite. The output is easy for anyone to comprehend; a simple measurement indicating minutes of skin exposure prior to damage. Here’s the latest map for Monday, Jan 6:

 

windchillSEI

 

You can see widespread areas of under 10 minutes exposure across much of the Midwest. This is a very dangerous situation!

This map and many other specialty outputs are available by subscription beginning February 1st at HazWx.com. In addition to specialty products, HazWx operates the only responsive mapping system available and does so with the most intuitive interface and stunning overlays you’ll find. All of this on the familiar Google mapping system, offering ultra smooth zoom and pan capabilities.

We invite you take a look around the site and see what’s available to you and your organization. From 3-Day Advanced Alerting to specialty products for industry, we ARE weather brought to you.

Also, be sure to sign up to be notified when we go live, by entering your email below!