Active Severe Weather Pattern Coming!

A very active severe weather pattern is setting up across the central and southern US over the next few days. Multiple rounds of severe weather are likely, some of which could be quite significant. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, tornadoes (some could be strong) and damaging winds.

SPC Day 2-8 Outlooks

SPC Day 2-8 Outlooks

Day 2 (Saturday April 26th)

There is a risk of severe storms along a dryline in western Oklahoma through portions of KS and TX. These storms may be prevented from developing through much of the day due to a strong “cap” in place. When storms in the evening and overnight hours, they will have the potential to be severe with tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.

storms

Day 3 (Sunday April 27th)

A “moderate” risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday. It is important to not always focus on these lines however! Severe weather is possible across a very large area from Nebraska through Texas (seen in the middle image at the top). The greatest risk appears to be across central and southern Kansas, southward into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeastern TX.

day3

Day 4 (Monday April 28th)

Severe weather is likely, shifting further east/south on Monday as the powerful storm system continues to move east. Severe weather is possible from portions of the southern great lakes, southward through the Gulf of Mexico. The image below shows the “Energy Helicity Index” or combination of CAPE/Low level shear.

day4

Day 5 (Tuesday April 29th)

Tuesday also appears to have the potential for significant severe weather, though details and timing/location are still unclear. Each day will have impacts on the severe weather the next day, so it is important to monitor the latest conditions! Here is an image showing the available instability forecast for Tuesday evening. The main threat appears to be across Mississippi and Alabama where the most instability and wind shear will combine.

day6

 

 

Posted in Weather Updates.

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